A Risk-Informed Decision Making Framework Accounting for Early-Phase Conceptual Design of Complex Systems

On April 26, 2012 I defended my dissertation in mechanical engineering at Oregon State University in the School of Mechanical, Industrial, and Manufacturing Engineering. The below video was generated from the live feed of the event. Approximately 15 people watched portions of the live feed. The event was held in the Mechanical, Industrial, and Manufacturing Engineering Library in Covell Hall. Roughly 35 people attended in person.

Abstract:

A gap exists in the methods used in industry and available in academia that prevents customers and engineers from having a voice when considering engineering risk appetite in the dynamic shaping of early-phase conceptual design trade study outcomes. Current methods used in Collaborative Design Centers either collect risk information after a conceptual design has been created, treat risk as an afterthought during the trade study process, or do not consider risk at all during the creation of conceptual designs. This dissertation proposes a risk-informed decision making framework that offers a new way to account for risk and make decisions based upon risk information within conceptual complex system design trade studies. A meaningful integration of the consideration of risk in trade studies is achieved in this framework thus elevating risk to the same level as other important system-level design parameters. Trade-offs based upon risk appetites of individuals are explicitly allowed under the framework, enabled by an engineering-specific psychometric risk survey that provides aspirational information to use in utility functions. This dissertation provides a novel framework and supporting methodologies for risk-informed design decisions and trades to be made that are based upon engineering risk appetites in conceptual design trade studies.

Dissertation Electronic Copy

Please visit my portfolio for more details on my research and work: http://www.douglasvanbossuyt.com/portfolio/

Dissertation Defense Background Definitions

The following definitions are a handy reference for those watching the livestream of my dissertation defense.

  • RAP = Risk and Rationale Assessment Program
  • DDP = Defect Detection and Prevention
  • JPL = Jet Propulsion Laboratory
  • FMEA = Failure Modes and Effects Analysis
  • FTA = Fault Tree Analysis
  • CDC = Collaborative Design Center
  • DOSPERT = Domain-Specific Risk Taking
  • E-DOSPERT = Engineering Domain-Specific Risk Taking
  • RBD = Reliability Block Diagrams
  • RPN = Risk Priority Number
  • IRB = Institutional Review Board
  • ETA = Event Tree Analysis

For further information, please visit www.douglasvanbossuyt.com/portfolio or contact Douglas at douglas.vanbossuyt@gmail.com.