A Risk-Informed Decision Making Framework for Early-Phase Conceptual Design of Complex Systems
By Douglas Van Bossuyt
Candidate for Doctor of Philosophy in Mechanical Engineering
Abstract
A gap exists in the methods used in industry and available in academia that prevents customers and engineers from having a voice when considering engineering risk appetite in the dynamic shaping of early-phase conceptual design trade study outcomes. Current methods used in Collaborative Design Centers either collect risk information after a conceptual design has been created, treat risk as an afterthought during the trade study process, or do not consider risk at all during the creation of conceptual designs. This dissertation proposes a risk-informed decision making framework that offers a new way to account for risk and make decisions based upon risk information within conceptual complex system design trade studies. A meaningful integration of the consideration of risk in trade studies is achieved in this framework thus elevating risk to the same level as other important system-level design parameters. Trade-offs based upon risk appetites of individuals are explicitly allowed under the framework, enabled by an engineering-specific psychometric risk survey that provides aspirational information to use in utility functions. This dissertation provides a novel framework and supporting methodologies for risk-informed design decisions and trades to be made that are based upon engineering risk appetites in conceptual design trade studies.
Thursday, April 26, 2012
1:00 PM, Covell 117
